One of the three most influential international rating agencies S&P Global Ratings has published the report “Evaluation of the industry and country risk of the banking sector: the Republic of Uzbekistan”: growth of real GDP of Uzbekistan in 2017-2018 is expected to be 6-7% per year.
“After reviewing our assessment of the component ‘economic imbalances’ we estimate the trend in relation to economic risk in Uzbekistan as ‘stable.’ Despite the reduction in surplus the current account positions to a level slightly above zero per cent, in our baseline scenario, we expect the stabilization of this index at the same level,” said in the Agency report.
“The slowdown in GDP growth is likely to stop, and real GDP growth is expected to be 6-7% per year in 2017-2018. In our opinion, in nominal terms, high rates of credit growth pose some difficulties, but we believe that they will generally correspond to the rate of economic growth in nominal terms, and will not lead to the formation of ‘price bubbles’ in the economy,” the report says.
“We estimate the trend in the industry risk in the banking system of Uzbekistan as ‘stable.’ In our opinion, the improvement of the regulatory requirements, the CBU measures to improve the quality of management and the tightening of capital adequacy requirements are offset by an increase in the level of government intervention in the banking system,” emphasizes the S&P Global Ratings.
“We believe that the dominance of banks with state participation in the banking sector prevents the development of competition. Funding Uzbekistan banks is assessed as stable mainly due to higher volumes of government funding and corporate deposits. At the same time, we note the decline in retail deposit growth and deterioration in capitalization of banks due to the rapid growth of assets,” said in the report of S&P Global Ratings.